{"id":2925,"date":"2022-09-27T09:57:05","date_gmt":"2022-09-27T16:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeremywhittaker.com\/?p=2925"},"modified":"2022-09-27T09:57:09","modified_gmt":"2022-09-27T16:57:09","slug":"house-prices-may-have-peaked-in-may-but-mortgage-payments-are-still-at-all-time-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/27\/house-prices-may-have-peaked-in-may-but-mortgage-payments-are-still-at-all-time-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"House prices may have peaked in May but mortgage payments are still at all time highs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The real estate market continues to get wrecked by the FED rate increases. From a valuation perspective. But most people I would argue don&#8217;t care about the price of a house as much as they do about the monthly payment. This is a combination of price and interest rate. So I wanted to create a dataset that shows the average house price with the median sales price. This will tell you what the average person&#8217;s monthly mortgage payment is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So here goes. The current <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MORTGAGE30US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.29%<\/a> as of September 22, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"689\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-1024x689.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2926 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-1024x689.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-446x300.png 446w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6.png 1166w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/689;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can take that and use Google Sheet&#8217;s formula to determine the monthly payment. It looks like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>=-PMT(INT RATE\/12,30*12,SALES PRICE)<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m assuming zero down payment simply to hold this variable constant.  <strong>What you can see here is the monthly payment currently is $2,728. This actually tops June&#8217;s monthly payment of $2,714<\/strong>. This means monthly mortgage payments adjusted for increased interest rates have not actually fallen at all. They are at their highest level ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This data is for Arizona specifically.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"600\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" data-src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQDVlAt4YwDF4BuDqkxfTdOxGwsaZisUnosc7hWWxqspEONTPjgIiydXeuK8v9GO4x-QSFL4UyrdfM5\/pubchart?oid=1223260582&amp;format=interactive\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>So while house prices are actually down 20% from their $480,000 median peak. Mortgages are actually higher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"371\" seamless=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" data-src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQDVlAt4YwDF4BuDqkxfTdOxGwsaZisUnosc7hWWxqspEONTPjgIiydXeuK8v9GO4x-QSFL4UyrdfM5\/pubchart?oid=96563806&amp;format=interactive\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The entire dataset, worksheet, and formulas can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1ZnQS3UYEtuSY268tOrFn9OPrYYfgAX30-KjewobQZ6A\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So where do I think prices go from here?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you look at the current 1-year average in mortgage payments the amount is $2,353. If we reverse the equation we used above with current rates then houses would need to be $381,00 just to revert back to the 1-year mean. This would mean we would need a 13.6% drop from this month&#8217;s current median sales price of $441,125 or a 20% drop from the peak price of $480,000 in May. Remember this is simply to get back to the 1-year average mortgage payment price. Market&#8217;s oversell and overshoot to the downside. The psychology of sellers with over 4,000 price cuts a week could mean things will get brutal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"738\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11-1024x738.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2936 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11-1024x738.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11-768x554.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11-416x300.png 416w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-11.png 1502w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/738;\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The real estate market continues to get wrecked by the FED rate increases. From a valuation perspective. But most people I would argue don&#8217;t care about the price&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>House prices may have peaked in May but mortgage payments are still at all time highs - Jeremy Whittaker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"House prices may have peaked in May but mortgage payments are still at all time highs - Jeremy Whittaker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The real estate market continues to get wrecked by the FED rate increases. 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