{"id":2208,"date":"2022-07-25T10:25:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T17:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeremywhittaker.com\/?p=2208"},"modified":"2022-08-01T10:30:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T17:30:38","slug":"arizona-real-estate-weekly-update-7-25-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/25\/arizona-real-estate-weekly-update-7-25-22\/","title":{"rendered":"Arizona real estate weekly update 7.25.22"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Call me crazy&#8230;But I believe affordability is the primary driver of housing prices. Mortgage rates determine payment. And payment determines affordability. This is rough rough rough math. But based on the inverse correlation between rates and housing prices you could easily derive from this chart a 30% drop in prices everything else being equal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buyers are still slashing prices as indicated in &#8216;Number of Price Changes per Week&#8217;. As long as this stays high or continues to grow there will be tremendous pressure continuing to push prices lower. Just because of psychological reasons if not anything else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on the &#8216;average list price per square foot&#8217; if you bought in the last year you are more than likely upside down. And technically you&#8217;re probably upside down if you bought anywhere near the end of 2020. Assuming a 6% reduction in your appreciation for selling fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Supply now sits at 2.8 months. This typically peaks in Jan-Feb. So I think it will continue to climb. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if we&#8217;re back to supplies being where they were in 2015 before it peaks, Jan\/Feb &#8217;23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"599\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply-1024x599.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2209 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply-1024x599.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply-300x176.jpg 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply-768x449.jpg 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply-500x293.jpg 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/months-of-supply.jpg 1357w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/599;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week-1024x562.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2210 lazyload\" width=\"614\" height=\"336\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week-1024x562.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week-300x165.jpg 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week-768x422.jpg 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week-500x275.jpg 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Number-of-Price-Changes-per-Week.jpg 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 614px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 614\/336;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"416\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price-1024x416.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2211 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price-1024x416.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price-300x122.jpg 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price-768x312.jpg 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price-500x203.jpg 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-median-sales-price.jpg 1157w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/416;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"491\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us-1024x491.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2212 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us-1024x491.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us-768x369.jpg 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us-500x240.jpg 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/mortgage-rates-us.jpg 1171w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/491;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Call me crazy&#8230;But I believe affordability is the primary driver of housing prices. Mortgage rates determine payment. And payment determines affordability. This is rough rough rough math. But&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arizona real estate weekly update 7.25.22 - Jeremy Whittaker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arizona real estate weekly update 7.25.22 - Jeremy Whittaker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Call me crazy&#8230;But I believe affordability is the primary driver of housing prices. 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