{"id":2198,"date":"2022-08-01T10:21:50","date_gmt":"2022-08-01T17:21:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeremywhittaker.com\/?p=2198"},"modified":"2022-08-01T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T18:11:23","slug":"arizona-real-estate-update-8-1-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/arizona-real-estate-update-8-1-22\/","title":{"rendered":"Arizona Real Estate update 8.1.22"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>People are still slashing their listing prices. It increased to its highest level this week, 4,172. This will continue to put huge downward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts-1024x563.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2199 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts-1024x563.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts-500x275.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Price-cuts.png 1319w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/563;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We have exactly 3 months of supply also going to put downward pressure on prices. The number I&#8217;m waiting for this to break is 3.9. Once this happens will have the most supply since 2016. I expect this will continue upward until Jan-Feb of &#8217;23 (it&#8217;s cyclical).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"597\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply-1024x597.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2200 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply-1024x597.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply-768x447.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply-500x291.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Months-of-Supply.png 1351w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/597;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"625\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory-1024x625.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2201 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory-1024x625.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory-768x469.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory-491x300.png 491w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Days-of-Inventory.png 1205w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/625;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The number we should be watching now is listings under contract. It sits this week at 7,343. This is the lowest it&#8217;s been for at least 3 years. I don&#8217;t have data that goes back any further. This number will tell you where the &#8216;bottom&#8217; is because it means people started buying again. Right now they still appear to be sitting on the sidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract-1024x563.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2202 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract-1024x563.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract-500x275.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Listings-Under-Contract.png 1339w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/563;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Listing prices are where they were a year ago. I&#8217;m not sure who is running things over at Zillow but their estimates don&#8217;t show any downturn. This appears to me to be highly inaccurate. I would not trust your &#8216;Zestimate&#8217; right now. It seems their algorithm has no method to adjust for a &#8216;listing price&#8217; variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"606\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot-1024x606.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2203 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot-1024x606.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot-768x455.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot-500x296.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/average-list-price-per-square-foot.png 1390w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/606;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2204 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate-1024x516.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate-500x252.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/zillow-arizona-estimate.png 1266w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/516;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s understandable why houses are not moving. Since the huge injection of capital into the system in early 2020(Covid) people are broke again. This can be seen in the personal savings rate. It is the lowest since 2009. I think this will also have an adverse effect on retail stocks. I&#8217;m willing to bet this will continue to decline to all-time lows in the next year or two. America is addicted to stimulus. With Fed rates going up the balance sheet of individuals is going to deteriorate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"425\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1024x425.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2238 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1024x425.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-768x319.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-500x208.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image.png 1170w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/425;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The question now is will the Fed continue to raise rates or pause as Powell hinted at last week?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate-1024x485.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2240 lazyload\" width=\"617\" height=\"291\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate-500x237.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fed-funds-rate.png 1175w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 617px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 617\/291;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m a huge believer in <a href=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/13\/i-bonds-dont-yield-9-62-its-actually-10-49\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">I Bonds <\/a>right now. They are one of the most solid investments you can make. They yield 9.62% risk-free. That being said I follow the inflation numbers pretty closely so I can determine what their new rate will be, come November 1st. There is nothing that indicates a slowdown in CPI-U(inflation). The next report is due on August 10th. I imagine that one won&#8217;t be friendly and the Fed will be back on track to raise rates for their September meeting. If inflation continues on its current trajectory then I bonds will yield north of 12% in November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"784\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2242 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2-1024x784.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2-768x588.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2-392x300.png 392w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-2.png 1235w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/784;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mortgage rates are also where they were back in 2008\/2009. With housing values up and rates up people cannot afford this market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" data-src=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4-1024x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2248 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4-1024x502.png 1024w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4-768x376.png 768w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4-500x245.png 500w, https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-4.png 1167w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/502;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>People are still slashing their listing prices. It increased to its highest level this week, 4,172. This will continue to put huge downward pressure on prices. We have&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arizona Real Estate update 8.1.22 - Jeremy Whittaker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arizona Real Estate update 8.1.22 - Jeremy Whittaker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"People are still slashing their listing prices. It increased to its highest level this week, 4,172. This will continue to put huge downward pressure on prices. 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