{"id":5733,"date":"2023-12-14T19:57:47","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T02:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeremywhittaker.com\/?page_id=5733"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:46:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T20:46:26","slug":"fomc-rate-probabilities","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/new.jeremywhittaker.com\/index.php\/fomc-rate-probabilities\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC Rate Probabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style id=\"fomc-rates-layout\">\n.jw-fomc-page { max-width: 1320px; margin: 0 auto; }\n.jw-fomc-page p { max-width: 900px; }\n.jw-fomc-chart { position: relative; width: 100%; margin: 28px 0 18px; border: 0; overflow: hidden; }\n.jw-fomc-chart iframe { width: 100%; height: 100%; border: 0; display: block; }\n.jw-fomc-chart--heatmap,\n.jw-fomc-chart--dot { aspect-ratio: 16 \/ 9; height: auto; }\n.jw-fomc-chart--macro { height: 2500px; }\n@media (max-width: 700px) {\n  .jw-fomc-chart--heatmap,\n  .jw-fomc-chart--dot { aspect-ratio: 1 \/ 1; }\n  .jw-fomc-chart--macro { height: 2500px; }\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"jw-fomc-page\">\n\n\n\n<p>This page tracks market-implied Federal Reserve target-rate probabilities, the latest FOMC dot plot, and the inflation\/labor\/rate context the Fed is reacting to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The probability heatmap is generated from an authorized FedWatch probability feed when configured. Until that feed is configured, the chart preserves the recovered legacy snapshot and marks it as stale in the chart title.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"jw-fomc-chart jw-fomc-chart--heatmap\"><iframe data-src=\"\/plots\/fomc_rates\/probabilities_heatmap.html\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The dot plot is rebuilt from the Federal Reserve&#8217;s published Summary of Economic Projections materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"jw-fomc-chart jw-fomc-chart--dot\"><iframe data-src=\"\/plots\/fomc_rates\/dot_plot.html\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation, unemployment, and effective federal funds rate data are refreshed from FRED public CSV series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"jw-fomc-chart jw-fomc-chart--macro\"><iframe data-src=\"\/plots\/fomc_rates\/cpi_unemployment_fed_rate.html\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This page tracks market-implied Federal Reserve target-rate probabilities, the latest FOMC dot plot, and the inflation\/labor\/rate context the Fed is reacting to. The probability heatmap is generated from&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6763,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-5733","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FOMC Rate Probabilities - Jeremy Whittaker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FOMC Rate Probabilities - Jeremy Whittaker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This page tracks market-implied Federal Reserve target-rate probabilities, the latest FOMC dot plot, and the inflation\/labor\/rate context the Fed is reacting to. 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