This page tracks market-implied Federal Reserve target-rate probabilities, the latest FOMC dot plot, and the inflation/labor/rate context the Fed is reacting to.
The probability heatmap is generated from an authorized FedWatch probability feed when configured. Until that feed is configured, the chart preserves the recovered legacy snapshot and marks it as stale in the chart title.
The dot plot is rebuilt from the Federal Reserve’s published Summary of Economic Projections materials.
Inflation, unemployment, and effective federal funds rate data are refreshed from FRED public CSV series.
